Planning scenario. This post describes the launch plan and its target numbers — the events and figures below are projections, not completed results.
Jan 22 is launch day. Here is what happened in the first 24 hours.
The headline
- 1,247 units sold in first 24 hours
- $24,917 first-day revenue ($19.99 ARPU)
- Featured in 4 categories on Steam’s front page
- Steam algorithm boost — page surfaced in “Popular New Releases” + “Discovery Queue”
By geography
- USA — 36%
- China — 19% (same as demo)
- Germany — 9%
- UK — 7%
- Russia — 6%
- Other 41 countries — 23%
Top traffic sources
- Steam wishlist emails — 38% (the Jan 15 email blast worked)
- Steam algorithm — 28% (Discovery Queue + Popular New Releases)
- Discord — 16% (the pinned launch announcement)
- Press coverage — 12% (PC Gamer + 3 indie blogs)
- Twitter / Reddit — 6%
Steam algorithm boost
Steam tracks launch-week sales velocity. The 1,247 first-day units hit the threshold for “Popular New Releases” within 4 hours. Result: featured in:
- Popular New Releases (top 20 by velocity)
- Discovery Queue (every Steam user)
- New & Trending (Jan 22-24)
- Featured & Recommended (Jan 22-25)
What worked
- The email blast. 38% of sales came from the wishlist email. The 30% open rate + 18% click-through was above Steam average (22% + 12%).
- The Steam algorithm. 28% of sales came from Steam’s organic discovery. The launch-day velocity triggered the algorithm boost.
- The press coverage. 12% of sales came from press. PC Gamer ran a 1,200-word review the day of launch.
What the week-2 forecast looks like
Launch-day velocity matters most in week 1. Expect week-2 sales to drop 60-70% from launch day as the algorithm boost fades. Week-3 sales will stabilize at ~150 units/week as word-of-mouth + sustained press coverage drive organic sales.
What this means for Q1 2027
Day 1 = $24,917. Day 7 (cumulative) = $40,000. Q1 2027 Steam total = $40,000. The Q1 2027 target ($46,000) is on track.
📎 Related articles
Agree, disagree, or caught something off? The comment form is below — I read all of them.
