Planning scenario. This post describes the launch plan and its target numbers — the events and figures below are projections, not completed results.
EFER is targeting $200,000 in revenue for 2027. That is 4.2x growth over 2026. Here is the quarter-by-quarter forecast, the assumptions, and the risks.
The 2027 forecast
| Quarter | Target | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 (Jan-Mar) | $46,000 | Steam full release + EFURC v0.3 + lore v2.1 |
| Q2 (Apr-Jun) | $48,000 | Steam full release + Outsiders expansion + lore v2.2 |
| Q3 (Jul-Sep) | $52,000 | Steam full release compounding + lore v2.3 + new T-shirts |
| Q4 (Oct-Dec) | $54,000 | Q4 launch cycle (lore v3, EFURC v0.4, Black Friday) |
| Total 2027 | $200,000 | 4.2x 2026 |
The assumptions
- Steam full release converts 20% of wishlists at launch. 6,170 wishlists × 20% = 1,234 units × $19.99 = $24,667 launch-week.
- Discord grows 30% per quarter. 2,400 → 3,120 → 4,056 → 5,273 members. Each member worth ~$4/year in attributed revenue.
- Lore book sells 200 copies per quarter. 200 × $9.99 × 4 = $7,996 / year.
- Faction Bundle sells 50 per quarter at $149.99. 50 × $149.99 × 4 = $29,996 / year.
- TeePublic grows 10% per quarter. Q1 2027: $2,000 → Q4 2027: $2,640.
- EFURC premium sells 100 packs per quarter at $19.99. 100 × $19.99 × 4 = $7,996 / year.
The risks
- Steam algorithm change. Steam’s algorithm is not stable. If Steam changes how it ranks games in 2027, the launch-week conversion rate could drop from 20% to 10%. That would cut Q1 Steam revenue in half.
- Lore book saturation. The market for fantasy lore books is finite. If lore book sales saturate at 200 copies/quarter, we need a new hub product by Q3 2027.
- Discord competition. Newer Discords (EFER competitors) could lure members away. Mitigation: keep content velocity high.
What this means for the business
$200,000 in 2027 is a stretch goal but achievable. The 4.2x growth rate is steep but consistent with the 2026 growth rate (4x Q4 over Q1). The compounding math works.
See the Q1 2027 roadmap (the first 90 days of the $200K forecast).
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